Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 1.916442 2.025048 2.138835 2.267335 2.408906 2.560676 2.736428
2025-09-07 1.763006 1.914954 2.081626 2.279483 2.509921 2.772328 3.097426
2025-09-14 1.639642 1.812603 2.008059 2.247976 2.538372 2.883741 3.333925
2025-09-21 1.543259 1.728882 1.943468 2.213824 2.551299 2.967273 3.533477
2025-09-28 1.461470 1.654689 1.882175 2.174961 2.549951 3.026510 3.700377
2025-10-05 1.426607 1.633112 1.880939 2.207238 2.636978 3.201983 4.036533
2025-10-12 1.396996 1.615175 1.881605 2.239831 2.724174 3.382142 4.397049
2025-10-19 1.367896 1.595587 1.878004 2.265047 2.801243 3.552588 4.761665
2025-10-26 1.327201 1.558955 1.849991 2.255010 2.827358 3.650319 5.023497
2025-11-02 1.289672 1.524443 1.822597 2.243397 2.849120 3.741576 5.283970
2025-11-09 1.249679 1.484951 1.786565 2.217343 2.847296 3.795355 5.485903
2025-11-16 1.211879 1.446812 1.750543 2.189037 2.839597 3.838113 5.672163
2025-11-23 1.185903 1.423839 1.734611 2.189205 2.875781 3.955889 6.016711
2025-11-30 1.165643 1.407667 1.727124 2.200856 2.929902 4.107565 6.450758
2025-12-07 1.132528 1.372998 1.692657 2.171095 2.916907 4.144001 6.659599
2025-12-14 1.100594 1.338903 1.657695 2.138816 2.897594 4.167232 6.843813
2025-12-21 1.069002 1.304344 1.620884 2.102064 2.868694 4.170710 6.985450
2025-12-28 1.060858 1.301572 1.628638 2.132589 2.951134 4.381715 7.631819
2026-01-04 1.053225 1.299127 1.636547 2.163398 3.035700 4.605146 8.361532
2026-01-11 1.043840 1.293849 1.640021 2.187222 3.109653 4.816017 9.116662
2026-01-18 1.025176 1.274956 1.622959 2.177740 3.124750 4.911396 9.587673
2026-01-25 1.006978 1.256224 1.605499 2.166768 3.136318 5.000418 10.064565
2026-02-01 0.985768 1.232681 1.580224 2.142142 3.121789 5.033387 10.383798